A week or so I made a lightning-fast trip from London to Boston to attend Progress’ industry and financial analyst day – primarily to hear about how the company’s acquisition of Savvion might affect (positively or negatively) its “One Progress” transformation.
As I blogged about previously, Progress has – by design – long been a bit like Unilever: a more-or-less invisible brand hovering behind the scenes, managing a portfolio of niche middleware brands (Actional, Apama, Sonic, DataDirect etc). With the instalment of Rick Reidy as CEO last year, however, Progress stated publicly that all this would change – and that by transforming to bring its brands together into a coherent set of propositions based around the idea of “Operational Responsiveness” it would position itself to grow to $1 billion in revenue. As I mentioned at the time the acquisition of Savvion was made public, Savvion’s BPM technology has the potential to be the keystone that holds its new vision and mission together.
So… where is Progress now, and what can it do?
Well, as others have covered very well (Forrester’s John Rymer has a great take [UPDATE: as does Sandy Kemsley, over a number of in-depth posts]) Progress has done a decent job of weaving a story that ties Actional, Apama, Sonic and Savvion technology together underneath the idea of Operational Responsiveness. Central to the story is a new Responsive Process Management (RPM) technology suite – combining products from the aforementioned brands and providing a unified process/event/transaction monitoring and management console called the “Control Tower” (based on existing portal technology from Savvion). If products come to market as planned, Progress will be able to stack up (pun intended) well against Oracle, TIBCO and IBM in this space.
So far, so good. But there is a danger lurking here for Progress, which is that in its quest to differentiate, it’s painting itself into a corner.
The idea of RPM is to help customers optimise offers and experiences for customers at the point of interaction to drive competitiveness. It’s about helping customers “change and tune their business operations without disruption, when the conditions are right, to increase revenue, maximise profit and prevent loss” (as Rob Levy, ex CTO of BEA and now Progress’ Chief Product Officer, said at the event).
This sounds sensible, if a little in advance of where most organisations are today. What made me nervous, though, was this statement combined with comments from Dr John Bates, Progress’ CTO: “the new frontier is to drive continuous process improvement in real time… companies have done everything they can do to analyse their business statically“.
He’s perhaps right that this is a new technical frontier: but how many organisations in the real world are in a position to take advantage of it? Some, certainly (customers like Southwest Airlines, on stage at the event, would be a good example). But many organisations I speak to are still struggling to work out how to apply BPM technology and get a handle on how to go beyond process modelling. As Dr Ketabchi (former CEO of Savvion) noted: “If 90% of enterprise processes need improvement, why aren’t they being improved? People think it’s too difficult and too costly.”
It’s difficult to see how advanced, real-time business optimisation capabilities are going to be less difficult to realise than ‘vanilla’ BPM capabilities. The largest pure-play BPM technology providers have managed to build annual revenues of a couple of hundred million dollars. If Progress paints RPM as a “leap beyond BPM”, it’s hard to see how this will get them to $1 billion.
I think I know what Progress is trying to do with RPM – it’s trying to show how CEP, transaction monitoring, SOA infrastructure and BPM taken together can make the business value of each investment more compelling.
Think about it as adding probabilities: 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.8. (to use some random numbers).
The danger with the tack it’s currently taking is that it could end up multiplying those probabilities, not adding them. (0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.0016).
Key to Progress succeeding in its endeavour will be its ability to lay out the RPM vision to industry in a non-threatening way – showing how customers and prospects can get from where they are to ‘RPM nirvana’ and showing how value can be added at each step on the journey.
I’m watching with interest!